Howard Davies
fears that bringing the current bout of inflation under control will carry high costs, suggests ways monetary policymakers can protect their reputations, defends the UK Treasury from accusations that it is too powerful, and more.
For decades, relative global stability, sound economic-policy management, and the steady expansion of trade to and from emerging markets combined to keep costs down. But now all these conditions have been overturned, and the world is settling into a dangerous and destabilizing new regime.
explains why the long era of low inflation, cheap imports, and consistent growth is now over.
华盛顿特区—在 新冠引发二战以来最严重的全球衰退仅仅两年多之后,世界经济再次陷入危险。这一次,它同时面临着高通胀和低增长。即使避免了全球衰退,滞胀的痛苦也可能持续数年,对低收入和中等收入经济体造成潜在的不稳定后果——除非实现供给大幅增加。
在乌克兰战争、通胀飙升和利率上升的背景下,预计 2022 年全球经济增长将下滑。世界银行今天发布的最新预测对前景大幅下调:预计今年全球增长将大幅放缓,从 2021 年的 5.7% 降至 2.9%。该预测较 2022 年 1 月的预测(预计今年增长 4.1%)下调了近三分之一。能源和食品价格的飙升,,乌克兰战争引发的供给和贸易中断,以及目前正在进行的必要利率正常化,是下调的主要原因。
新冠已经对发展中经济体的收入增长和减贫造成了重大挫折。乌克兰战争的后果给许多发展中经济体带来了挑战。预计它们将在 2022 年勉强维持 3.4% 的增长——仅为 2021 年的一半,远低于 2011 年至 2019 年的平均水平。同样,中等收入国家 2022 年的增长预测已大幅下调,相对1月份的预测下降 1.3 个百分点。
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