Margaret Scott

Cómo ganar la transición

WASHINGTON, DC - ¿Se está convirtiendo la primavera árabe en un otoño sombrío? Con la brutal represión en Siria, una sangrienta guerra civil en Libia y Yemen al borde del caos, el número de los escépticos es cada vez mayor. Aunque los movimientos a favor de la democracia en Egipto y Túnez lograron un rápido cambio de régimen, también sigue habiendo incertidumbres en esos países. Tras un breve periodo de esperanza, muchos observadores se preguntan ahora si la región es capaz de producir democracias viables y económicamente vibrantes.

Por supuesto. las revoluciones y sus secuelas son siempre tiempos inestables y llenos de vicisitudes, y el resultado a menudo es incierto. La reducción de la enorme brecha entre las grandes expectativas y la realidad de presupuestos y capacidades limitados es una prueba en sí misma. Corregir las injusticias del pasado y construir una economía que ofrezca oportunidades a todos significan también grandes retos, cargados de volatilidad, incertidumbre y los peligros del oportunismo político.

Pero las transiciones son también tiempos de grandes oportunidades. En la década de los 90, fui uno de los indonesios que exigió y celebró la salida de nuestro propio autócrata, Suharto, y me uní al nuevo gobierno cuando se marchó. Muchos observadores predijeron que Indonesia, el país musulmán más poblado del mundo, sería incapaz de sostener la democracia y acabaría por caer en el caos. La tarea que nos esperaba era enorme. Sin embargo, hemos demostrado a los escépticos que estaban equivocados y aprendimos algunas lecciones fundamentales.

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