Margaret Scott

Gagner la transition

WASHINGTON – Le Printemps Arabe serait-il en train de se convertir en un automne morose ? Le camp des sceptiques gagne du terrain au regard des violentes répressions en Syrie, de la sanglante guerre civile en Libye et d’un Yémen vacillant au bord du chaos. Les mouvements pro-démocratie égyptiens et tunisiens sont parvenus à des changements rapides, mais des incertitudes persistent dans ces pays, aussi. Après une brève période d’espoir, de nombreux observateurs se demandent maintenant si la région est capable de produire des démocraties durables économiquement dynamiques.

Les révolutions et leurs retombées sont, bien sûr, toujours des périodes fragiles et instables, et l’issue est souvent indécise. Réduire le vaste fossé entre les attentes élevées et la réalité budgétaire et les moyens limités est un test en soi. Réparer les injustices du passé et bâtir une économie capable d’offrir des opportunités pour tous sont aussi des défis majeurs que la volatilité, l’incertitude et les risques d’opportunisme politique fragilisent.  

Mais les transitions sont aussi des périodes de vastes opportunités. Dans les années 90, j’étais parmi les Indonésiens qui ont demandé et célébré le départ de notre propre autocrate, Suharto, et j’ai rejoint le nouveau gouvernement après son départ. De nombreux observateurs avaient prédit que l’Indonésie, le pays musulman le plus peuplé du monde, serait incapable de maintenir une démocratie pour finalement tomber dans le chaos. La tâche qui nous attendait était considérable. Mais nous avons donné tort aux sceptiques et retenu des leçons fondamentales.

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