Margaret Scott

实现转型成功

华盛顿——阿拉伯春天之后阴沉的秋天是否正在来临?随着叙利亚的残酷镇压、利比亚的血腥内战和也门在混乱边缘摇摇欲坠,持怀疑态度的人数正迅速攀升。虽然埃及和突尼斯的民主运动快速实现了政权更替,但这两个国家同样存在不确定性。在短暂的希望过后,不少观察家现在怀疑该地区能否诞生能独立发展、充满经济活力的民主国家。

当然,革命和革命的结果往往都非常善变,而最终的结果往往系于千钧一发之间。弥合殷切希望和有限预算和能力之间的鸿沟本身就是一种考验。纠正既往不公和建设机会均等的经济也是一项充满波动、变数和政治机会主义风险的严峻挑战。

但转型往往也伴随着巨大的机遇。20世纪90年代,我曾经是要求并且庆祝独裁统治者苏哈托下台的印尼民众的一员,苏哈托离开后我加盟了新的政府。当时很多观察家预测全世界人口最多的穆斯林国家印尼将无法保持民主制度,并最终陷入到混乱当中。令人生畏的任务摆在我们面前。但我们证明了怀疑论者的错误,从中汲取了某些基本的经验。

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