夺取欧洲信心战的胜利

芝加哥——如果未来几天内出台的欧洲危机解决方案想要重塑人们对主权债券的信心的话,那么该计划就必须在经济上可行,而且在政治上可以让救援者和被救援者双方接受。这意味着我们不仅要关注解决方案的技术细节,也要注意它的包装。

对于解决方案的关键点,人们越来越有了共识。首先,意大利和西班牙必须给出可信的中期计划,不仅要重塑财政健康,还必须改善它们走出困境的能力。不管是什么计划,公民肯定会经受一些痛苦,与此同时,市场必须认为这些痛苦在政治上是可接受的,至少要比替代方案好。

有一点很重要:这些计划应该被视为是由本国设计的(尽管选民们会对迫使本国政府采取行动的外部和市场压力心知肚明)。与此同时,外部机构,比如IMF,可以通过评估计划与该国目标的一致性以及监督计划的实施来加强计划的可信度。

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