haass138_SERGEY BOBOKAFP via Getty Images ukraine war

普京的战争的赢家和输家

Mar 30, 2022 Richard Haass

纽约—俄罗斯总统普京的乌克兰战争已经过去了一个月。实际上，有两场战争：一场主要针对乌克兰城市和平民的俄罗斯战争，以及一场由乌克兰武装部队与俄罗斯军队之间战争。俄罗斯正在赢得前者；乌克兰正在赢得后者。

理想情况下，谈判会带来停火和持久解决。但同样，如果可能性有过之而无不及的是冲突将持续一段时间，特别是如果普京决定采取减少他的部队在暴露于战斗中，并拒绝以乌克兰政府可以接受的条款谈判结果的战略的话。用托洛茨基的话来说，“有限的战争，就没有和平”，这就是俄乌战争的结果。

在这种情况下，谁会是赢家和输家？

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Richard Haass

Writing for PS since 2020
143 Commentaries

Richard Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations, previously served as Director of Policy Planning for the US State Department (2001-2003), and was President George W. Bush's special envoy to Northern Ireland and Coordinator for the Future of Afghanistan. He is the author, most recently, of The World: A Brief Introduction (Penguin Press, 2020).

Will Ukraine's Tragedy Spur UN Security Council Reform? Politics
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Will Ukraine's Tragedy Spur UN Security Council Reform?

Kemal Derviş & José Antonio Ocampo argue that a mechanism for overturning permanent members’ vetoes would make the organization more effective.

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Greg Daniels Apr 3, 2022

Typical Neocon bravado.
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Aner Garmendia Mar 31, 2022

Simply brilliant. Russia must not be awarded with any territorial concessions in the eventual peace negotiations. The West must be united in their defence of the Ukrainian position.
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F Ahmed Mar 30, 2022

The more things change the more they remain same, regrettably for global peace and so called pundits.

Similar bravado and assertions of the "victorious and righteous side" were expressed when Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Libya were attacked too. The ramifications will unfold in time and not per Mr. Hass or anyone else's wishes.

Not supporting the actions of Russia or U.S and NATO countries but unless we do away with self selective application of justice and morality, the world will remain conflict-prone and unstable. "I will only look at the issue from my side and shall consider your position valueless" is the core reason. Our planet can only be secured with mounting of a concerted and genuine effort where all countries agree to a new charter of humanity and laws - not the undemocratic UN Charter where veto power wielders ride roughshod over others in their self-interest only. Only by following a new norm can the world expect to solve existing conflicts and prevent new ones to break out.
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