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人民币崛起？

Dec 12, 2013 Wing Thye Woo

上海—在中国，一场日益激烈的争论是人民币是否应该国际化，加入美元和欧元的行列成为国际媒介货币（international vehicle currency，IVC），即其他国家用来为贸易商品和国际贷款计价的货币。与此有关的一场争论是上海是否能够成为顶级国际金融中心（first-tier international financial center ，1-IFC），与伦敦和纽约相抗衡。

金融史可以帮助回答这些问题。首先，一个城市只有在所在国货币成为IVC时才可能成为1-IFC。但是，正如伦敦的地位所表明的，即使所在国货币已不再是IVC，老牌1-IFC仍可以保有其在国际金融体系中的地位。

其次，使用外国货币作为交易媒介的交易成本与这种货币的全球使用程度成反比。外国投资者使用某一特定国际金融中心具有类似的规模经济特征。因此，IVC和1-IFC的数量不会超过三四个。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 3 in all 3 Comments on this article

Usamah Uthman Dec 15, 2013

The effects on the capital account ( the possible meltdown) are not the only possible effects. Effects on the current account are more possible and more important. China must be ready to accept a sharp appreciation of its currency and the consequences thereof.; exports will suffer, imports will rise. consequently investment must decline. The Balancing of the economy must come through rising consumption. these adjustments may not be smooth as may generate sectoral unemployment and social dislocations.
Chee-Heong Quah Dec 13, 2013

Time Time and again regulation and regulators have proven to be the cause of crisis. Instead of more regulation, please, there should be no regualtion at all. Freeze the notes and coins of renminbi. Let banks freely expand credit subject only to market regulation. Following this, renminbi could be as good as gold.
Walter Gingery Dec 12, 2013

Be careful what you wish for. With the dollar as a reserve currency, it is very difficult for the Federal Reserve to manage domestic monetary policy because the US financial system must accommodate not only conditions in the US, but also distortions introduced by the use of the US dollar as a reserve currency, and these distortions can be massive. The most obvious example is the way over the past decade systematic industrial policies mainly in China and East Asia aimed at running trade surpluses and the accumulations of reserves meant that the US economy was forced to adjust in ways that created large and serious imbalances.
For another thing, liquidity is a key requirement, and it's unlikely that the RMB will match that of the dollar.
Finally, for a currency to achieve reserve status, there must be some systematic way of delivering the currency to central banks and other players who want to acquire it, and the US does so by its ability and willingness to run persistent trade deficits and open capital accounts. How does China propose to do that?

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人民币崛起？

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