Teoría y práctica de las nuevas reformas chinas

HONG KONG – El 12 de noviembre, la Tercera Sesión Plenaria del 18.° Comité Central del Partido Comunista Chino (PCC) anunció un importante giro hacia políticas con orientación de mercado: liberalización de las tasas de interés y la moneda, reforma de los bancos y las empresas estatales, un régimen de propiedad más claro para los habitantes rurales y una mejor situación para los migrantes urbanos.

Detrás de esta decisión histórica hubo una crisis potencial. El éxito de China fue impulsado por exportaciones baratas basadas en mano de obra barata, infraestructura construida por empresas estatales con financiamiento bancario de bajo costo y presupuestos gubernamentales financiados por la venta de tierras. Pero la mano de obra ya no es barata, las construcciones de caminos para conectar a las ciudades más importantes han cedido lugar a la construcción de grandes centros de compras en pequeños pueblos y las ventas de tierras basadas en la rezonificación están alcanzando tanto sus límites económicos como los de tolerancia de los vecinos.

El dinero barato y la limitada capacidad para canalizar inversiones generan el riesgo de alimentar burbujas inmobiliarias y capacidad excedente en la industria. De no mediar cambios fundamentales, China enfrenta un menor crecimiento económico, una inadecuada creación de empleos e innovación, y estallidos de burbujas.

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