中国新改革:理论与实践

香港—11月12日,中国十八大三中全会宣布了一组重大的市场化转向政策:利率和货币自由化、银行和国有企业改革、更清晰的农村居民土地所有权、以及更好的城市农民工待遇。

隐藏在这一划时代决定背后的是一场潜在危机。中国的成功一直是由基于廉价劳动力的廉价出口、廉价银行资金支持的国有企业建设的基础设施以及土地销售提供资金的政府预算推动的。但劳动力不再廉价、连接主要城市的道路建设已经变成了在小城镇建设大型购物城,基于重新规划的土地销售已经达到了经济和村民容忍力的双重极限。

如今,廉价的资金加上投资渠道受限有可能助长房地产泡沫和工业产能过剩。如果没有根本性变化,中国面临着经济增速减慢、就业创造和创新不足和泡沫破裂的风险。

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