Wird es in den USA eine „Schuldenkrise“ geben?

WASHINGTON, D.C.: John Boehner, der Sprecher des US-Repräsentantenhauses, führt derzeit den Angriff der republikanischen Partei auf die US-Fiskalpolitik an. Er argumentiert dabei, seine Partei wolle „Billionen von Dollars“ an Ausgabesenkungen sehen, um im Kongress einer Erhöhung der Schuldengrenze zuzustimmen. Den Sachverhalt auf diese Weise zu formulieren, schafft freilich ein großes Problem für Boehner: Es wird unmittelbar, vollständig und schnell eine der wichtigsten Anhängergruppen der Republikaner verärgern – den US-Unternehmenssektor.

Die Fokussierung auf eine Schuldengrenze schafft für Boehner und die Republikaner eine politische Falle. Es stimmt, dass die Fähigkeit des US-Finanzministeriums, Kredite aufzunehmen, Anfang August ihr gesetzlich zugelassenes Limit erreicht. Es stimmt außerdem, dass, wann immer die Republikaner bezüglich der Schuldengrenze mit dem Säbel rasseln und drohen, diese nicht zu erhöhen, der Rentenmarkt darauf mit einem Gähnen reagiert, ohne dass es zu wesentlichen Auswirkungen auf die Zinsen kommt.

Wären die Drohungen der Republikaner glaubwürdig, würde jede Nachricht, die die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines Problems bei der Schuldengrenze erhöhte, die Kurse für Schatzanleihen nach unten und die Verzinsung in die Höhe treiben. Dies passiert nicht, weil sich die Anleihehändler nicht vorstellen können, dass die Republikaner dazu in der Lage – oder auch nur bereit – wären, ihre Drohungen wahr zu machen.

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