Состоится ли следующая демократическая революция в Египте?

Реакция на призыв Америки к демократии на Ближнем Востоке остается в лучшем случае прохладной. Правительства арабских стран испытывают раздражение по поводу действий президента Джорджа Буша, особенно после того, как он объявил о своей инициативе практически без предварительных региональных консультаций. Стремясь упредить действия Америки, Египет поддержал контрпредложение – Александрийскую декларацию – на саммите Лиги Арабских Государств в мае прошлого года, за чем последовало недавнее заявление президента Хосни Мубарака, что он позволит кандидатам от оппозиции бросить ему вызов в борьбе за президентский пост. Является ли это очередной вводящей в заблуждение тактикой или же началом реальных преобразований?

Совершенно очевидно то, что в результате прошедших недавно выборов в Ираке и Палестине, а также массовых протестов против пагубного влияния Сирии на демократию в Ливане, в Египте с новой силой разгорелись дебаты о политической реформе. Представители оппозиции утверждают, что страна должна провести реформу сама, если не хочет, чтобы ей навязали ее извне.

Более того, исполнительный директор одной из газет заявил, что отсрочка политической и конституционной реформы, как если бы она была подарком гражданам, а не их правом, приведет к иностранному вмешательству во внутренние дела Египта. Демократия в арабских странах, утверждает он, стала внутренней проблемой в Соединенных Штатах, что не позволит американскому президенту смотреть сквозь пальцы на злоупотребления со стороны дружественных арабских режимов, как они делали это в прошлом.

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