Gerät Russland in zahme Hände?

MOSKAU – Kürzlich erklärte Russlands Präsident Dmitri Medwedew, nach der Wahl 2012 würde er zwar gern für eine zweite Amtszeit antreten, aber nicht gegen Ministerpräsident Wladimir Putin, durch den er ursprünglich an die Macht gekommen war. Eine solche Rivalität, meinte er, würde das Wohlergehen und das Image seines Landes gefährden.

Medwedews Aussage sollte die Spekulationen darüber beenden, ob er noch einmal antritt. Bezüglich Putin aber, dessen Einfluss viel größer ist, als der des zahmen russischen Präsidenten, bleibt es weiterhin spannend. Vor allem im Westen würden viele es begrüßen, wenn Putin mitsamt seinem unbequemen antiwestlich-autoritären Regierungsstil abtreten würde.

In der Tat war die russische Außenpolitik der letzten zehn Jahre von Abwehr und Misstrauen geprägt. Sogar zu der von Natur aus wenig bedrohlichen Europäischen Union hat Russland ein gespanntes Verhältnis. Das Land reagiert empfindlich auf die Unabhängigkeit seiner Anliegerstaaten, insbesondere der Länder, die politisch oder geografisch dem Westen nahestehen – Weißrussland, Moldawien, Ukraine und Georgien. Über zehn Jahre, nachdem dies aktuell war, prangert der Kreml immer noch die Vergrößerung der NATO nach Osten als eine Bedrohung der Sicherheit an.

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