Quel avenir pour Poutine ?

MOSCOU – Lors d'une interview récente, le président russe Dmitri Medvedev a annoncé qu'il envisage de se représenter à l'élection de 2012, mais qu'il s'en abstiendrait si  Vladimir Poutine, auquel il doit sa place et qui occupe le poste de Premier ministre, entrait en lice. Il sous-entendait qu'une telle rivalité serait nuisible au pays et à son image.

Sa déclaration devrait mettre fin aux spéculations sur sa candidature. Mais le suspense reste entier en ce qui concerne les intentions de Poutine dont l'influence dépasse largement celle de Medvedev qui paraît si effacé par rapport à lui. Beaucoup de gens, notamment en Occident, seraient contents de voir Poutine, avec son style autoritaire, agressif et anti-occidental, disparaître de la scène.

Au cours des 10 dernières années, la politique étrangère de la Russie a été marquée par la suspicion et la crainte de l'étranger, au point d'entretenir des relations difficiles avec l'UE pourtant intrinsèquement non menaçante à son égard. La Russie est susceptible au sujet  de l'indépendance de ses voisins, notamment ceux qui sont proches politiquement ou géographiquement de l'Occident : la Biélorussie, la Moldavie, l'Ukraine et la Géorgie. Plus de 10 ans après, le Kremlin dénonce encore l'élargissement de l'OTAN vers l'Est comme une menace pour sa sécurité.

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