¿Sobrevivirá el euro a la crisis actual?

CAMBRIDGE – La Unión Económica y Monetaria (UEM) y el euro están a punto de celebrar su décimo aniversario. La introducción del euro se hizo sin problemas graves y desde entonces ha funcionado bien, pues el Banco Central Europeo ha cumplido con su único mandato, que es el de mantener baja la inflación.

Pero la crisis económica actual puede constituir una prueba severa sobre la capacidad del euro para sobrevivir en tiempos más turbulentos. Si bien la crisis podría fortalecer las instituciones proporcionadas por la UEM, también podría crear múltiples riesgos, de los que los países miembros deben ser conscientes, si quieren evitarlos.

El problema principal es el de que las condiciones en cada uno de los miembros de la UEM pueden desarrollarse de formas tan diferentes, que algunos dirigentes políticos nacionales podrían sentir la tentación de pensar que sería más útil para sus países adoptar una combinación de políticas diferente de la de otros miembros. Las diferencias actuales en cuanto a los tipos de interés de los bonos estatales de la zona del euro muestran que los mercados financieros consideran que la posibilidad de una ruptura es real. Los bonos estatales a diez años de Grecia e Irlanda, por ejemplo, rinden ahora casi un punto porcentual por encima del tipo de interés de bonos alemanes comparables y el tipo de interés de Italia es casi igualmente elevado.

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