Will the Euro Dethrone the Dollar?

Gran parte del predominio de Estados Unidos en las finanzas mundiales surge de la condición del dólar como moneda internacional. El compromiso de Estados Unidos con los mercados de capitales libres, el estado de derecho y la estabilidad de precios le confieren credibilidad al dólar como depósito de valor. Pero los hábitos de gasto norteamericanos han socavado la reputación del dólar y la sobreoferta de dólares en los mercados mundiales deprimió su valor. Esta primavera, el tipo de cambio del euro frente al dólar alcanzó un pico máximo sin precedentes y los bancos centrales aumentaron el porcentaje de euros en sus reservas internacionales. ¿Acaso el dólar está a punto de perder la corona de las finanzas mundiales en manos del euro?

La historia sugiere lo contrario, a pesar de un dólar vulnerable.

La supremacía financiera norteamericana en el siglo XXI se asemeja a la posición que ocupaba Gran Bretaña en las finanzas mundiales hace un siglo. Antes del estallido de la Primera Guerra Mundial en agosto de 1914, la libra esterlina se desempeñaba como la moneda de elección para las transacciones internacionales, como sucede hoy con el dólar, y los prestatarios del mundo visitaban la ciudad de Londres en busca de capital.

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