L’euro détrônera-t-il le dollar ?

Les Etats-Unis doivent en grande partie leur prédominance dans le monde de la finance internationale au statut du dollar comme monnaie de référence. Leur engagement en faveur de l’économie libérale, de l’état de droit et de la stabilité monétaire confère une certaine crédibilité au dollar comme réserve de valeur. Mais les habitudes dispendieuses des Américains ont entamé la réputation du billet vert, déprécié par ailleurs par un excédent de liquidités sur les marchés mondiaux. L’euro a atteint ce printemps un cours record par rapport au dollar, et les banques centrales ont augmenté la proportion de la monnaie européenne dans leurs ré8eserves en devises internationales. Le dollar serait-il sur le point de perdre son titre de roi de la finance mondiale au profit de l’euro ?

Les précédents historiques donnent à penser que ce n’est pas le cas, malgré la vulnérabilité actuelle du dollar.

La suprématie de la monnaie américaine au XXI e siècle s’apparente à la situation du Royaume-Uni dans la finance mondiale il y a un siècle. Avant le début de la Première guerre mondiale en août 1914, la livre sterling était la monnaie couramment utilisée pour les transactions internationales, comme le dollar l’est aujourd’hui, et les emprunteurs du monde entier se rendaient à la City de Londres pour lever des capitaux.

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