¿Reventará la burbuja de los bonos?

A menos que la inflación caiga mucho más, este es el momento ideal para pedir préstamos y un mal momento para prestar o invertir en bonos de largo plazo. De hecho, en muchos países el temor exagerado a la deflación está manteniendo las tasas de interés y el costo del capital a niveles históricamente bajos.

Las tasas más bajas se vieron el 13 de junio. Los bonos a diez años de los EEUU rendían 3.11%, no muy por encima de la tasa de inflación de 2.1% de los pasados 12 meses. Los bonos a diez años en el área del Euro rendían 3.54%, mientras que la tasa de inflación allí era de un 1.9%. La tasa de rendimiento en el Reino Unido fue del 3.86%, mientras la inflación fue de un 3%, y los bonos japoneses rindieron 0.44%, en comparación con la inflación de -0.1%.

En todos los casos, un pequeño aumento de los muy bajos índices inflacionarios actuales eliminaría cualquier ganancia real de invertir en bonos. Si las bajas tasas de largo plazo no se mantienen, los precios de los bonos de largo plazo caerán abruptamente, dejando a los inversionistas a pérdida.

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