Лопнет ли пузырь облигаций?

Если инфляция не упадет еще больше, то тогда сейчас идеальное время для того, чтобы занимать и плохое время для того, чтобы давать взаймы или вкладывать средства в долгосрочные облигации. В самом деле, во многих странах преувеличенные страхи перед дефляцией искуственно держат процентные ставки низкими, а стоимость капитала самой низкой за всю историю.

Самые низкие ставки наблюдались 13 июня. 10-летние облигации в Соединенных Штатах принесли 3,11%, что не намного выше уровня инфляции 2,1% за последние 12 месяцев. 10-летние привительственные облигации в зоне Евро принесли 3,54%, в то время как уровень инфляции в зоне Евро был 1,9%. Проценты в Великобритании составили 3,86%, в то время как инфляция была 3%, а японские облигации принесли 0,44% по сравнению с инфляцией -0,1%.

Во всех случаях небольшое повышение очень низких в настоящее время уровней инфляции исключает любой реальный доход от вкладывания средств в облигации. Если низкие долгосрочные уровни не продержатся, цены на долгосрочные облигации резко упадут, оставив инвесторов в убытке.

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