Flag of Brazil hanging on terrace.

Уничтожит ли технология конвергенцию?

ВАШИНГТОН, округ Колумбия – На прошлой неделе, в рамках ежегодных встреч Всемирного банка и Международного валютного фонда в Лиме, Перу, доминирующей темой обсуждений, было замедление роста развивающихся экономик. Провозглашенные в результате финансового кризиса 2008 года в качестве новых двигателей мировой экономики, сегодня развивающиеся экономики замедляют рост мировой экономики, и многие утверждают, что их эпоха быстрого расширения – и их поиски достичь конвергенции с уровнем дохода развитых стран – закончилась. Правы ли фаталисты?

Конечно есть повод для беспокойства – начавшийся в Китае. После десятилетий практически двузначного роста, Китай, по-видимому, испытывает заметный спад – тот, который как некоторые утверждают, в действительности хуже, чем показывает официальная статистика.

Так как рост Китая замедляется, так же замедляется и спрос на нефть и сырье, с тяжелыми последствиями для других стран с развивающейся экономикой, которые зависят от экспорта сырья. Более того, выгоды от снижения цен на сырьевые товары, кажется, не материализовались среди чистых импортеров, за исключением, пожалуй, Индии; если они и материализовались, они были далеко не достаточными, чтобы компенсировать другие, разрушающие рост, силы.

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