Flag of Brazil hanging on terrace.

技术会扼杀趋同吗?

华盛顿—在上周世界银行和国际货币基金组织(IMF)在秘鲁利马举行的年会上,一个主导了讨论过程的话题是新兴经济体增长放缓。2008年金融危机爆发后,新兴经济体被誉为世界经济体的新增长引擎,但如今,新兴经济体成了全球增长的拖累因素,许多人认为,它们的快速扩张期已经结束,它们对实现向发达国家收入水平趋同的努力也已经结束。这些末日论者说得对吗?

当然,担忧的理由是存在的——从中国开始。在经历了几十年的近两位数的增长后,中国似乎开始经历显著放缓——有人认为放缓幅度之大实际比官方统计数字更加糟糕。

随着中国增长的放缓,其对石油和大宗商品的需求也放缓了,这给其他依赖大宗商品出口的新兴经济体造成了严重影响。此外,大宗商品价格下跌的好处并没有体现在净出口国身上(也许印度是个例外),即使获得了好处,也远不足以抵消其他不利于增长的力量。

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