Wird sich Syrien wieder eingliedern?

ISTANBUL – Wird die Annäherung zwischen den Vereinigten Staaten und Syrien eine neue Ära im Hinblick auf Syriens internationale Position einläuten?

Syrien kann nach der Wiederaufnahme voller diplomatischer Beziehungen mit den USA auf zwei wichtige Veränderungen hoffen. Erstens, dass man von der amerikanischen schwarzen Liste der „Achse des Bösen“ gestrichen wird, wodurch sich die Chancen auf einen Beitritt zur Welthandelsorganisation substanziell verbessern. Zweitens wird Syrien voraussichtlich grünes Licht für eine Pipeline erhalten, mit der irakisches Öl über syrisches Territorium in die Türkei transportiert werden soll. Eine derartige Anbindung an die türkische Wirtschaft – und daher möglicherweise an die Europäische Union – würde Syrien ermutigen, seine Ökonomie stärker für Auslandsinvestitionen zu öffnen.  

Das alles wird jedoch zweifellos seinen Preis haben. Syrien wird unweigerlich seine Unterstützung für die Hisbollah im Libanon aufgeben müssen, und dafür im Gegenzug  wahrscheinlich eine Rückgabe der Golanhöhen anstrengen. Israel wird sich dieser Entwicklung vermutlich widersetzen und der Iran – als Anführer des sich vom Libanon bis Tadschikistan erstreckenden „schiitischen Halbmondes“ – würde sich wohl auch vehement und vielleicht sogar gewaltvoll gegen ein derartiges Abkommen wenden.  

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