¿Sobrevivirá Olmert?

Después de que el pasado verano Israel no pudiera lograr una victoria rotunda sobre Hezbolá en el sur del Líbano, la presión pública obligó al gobierno del Primer Ministro Ehud Olmert a nombrar una comisión para que examinara las causas de ese sorprendente fracaso. ¿Cómo pudo una pequeña milicia, con unos pocos miles de combatientes, sobrevivir a la acometida de la máquina militar más formidable del Oriente Medio?

La comisión, presidida por el juez jubilado del Tribunal Supremo Eliyahu Winograd, acaba de hacer público su informe provisional. Sus críticas a Olmert, al ministro de defensa Amir Peretz y al jefe del Estado Mayor Dan Halutz, expuestas en una detallada y meticulosa evaluación de 117 páginas, son duras, pero no sorprendentes. La Comisión Winograd ha expresado lo que la mayoría de los israelíes ya pensaban: Olmert y Peretz carecían de la necesaria experiencia política, militar y de seguridad para afrontar a una organización terrorista que hizo incursiones en territorio israelí, mató a varios soldados y raptó a otros dos y después lanzó miles de cohetes contra blancos civiles durante un mes.

En realidad, la inexperiencia del Primer Ministro y del ministro de Defensa carecen de precedentes en la historia de Israel. Olmert, que sucedió a Ariel Sharon como dirigente del nuevo partido Kadima, estaba considerado un parlamentario –y después alcalde de Jerusalén- competente, pero sin brillo, era más conocido por su estilo polémico que por su estatura o su peso específico políticos.

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