全球失衡会重现吗?

北京-未来的历史书籍,由于写作地点的不同,会采用下述两种方式中的一种,来归咎当前世界金融和经济危机的责任。

  历史书籍两种归责方式中的一种,会将当前的金融和经济危机归咎于美国松懈的监管、没有原则的货币政策以及储蓄不足;另一种——像格林·斯潘和本·伯南克这样的前任美联储官员和现任美联储官员已经强调了这种方式,会将当前的金融和经济危机归咎于东亚和中东的高储蓄国家制造的巨大流动性。他们认为,所有这些流动性都去了某个地方,其合理的目的地就是拥有最复杂的金融市场的美国,并且在进入美国之后将美国的资产价格抬升到了无法持续的高度。

  请注意,上述两个阵营的人对这个观点达成了共识:即全球储蓄失衡——美国的低储蓄和中国及其他新兴市场的高储蓄——使美国人过上一种本身无法承受的生活,这对经济危机的发生起到了关键作用。这种全球储蓄失衡,促使金融家为了获得收益,不顾一切地将大量资金投入到越来越具有投机性的用途中去。如果说人们已经在某个问题上达成了共识的话,这个问题就是,如果不考虑全球失衡的作用,要想理解资产泡沫和经济危机是不可能的。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/aMvM1QN/zh;
  1. China corruption Isaac Lawrence/Getty Images

    The Next Battle in China’s War on Corruption

    • Chinese President Xi Jinping knows well the threat that corruption poses to the authority of the Communist Party of China and the state it controls. 
    • But moving beyond Xi's anti-corruption purge to build robust and lasting anti-graft institutions will not be easy, owing to enduring opportunities for bureaucratic capture.
  2. Italy unemployed demonstration SalvatoreEsposito/Barcroftimages / Barcroft Media via Getty Images

    Putting Europe’s Long-Term Unemployed Back to Work

    Across the European Union, millions of people who are willing and able to work have been unemployed for a year or longer, at great cost to social cohesion and political stability. If the EU is serious about stopping the rise of populism, it will need to do more to ensure that labor markets are working for everyone.

  3. Latin America market Federico Parra/Getty Images

    A Belt and Road for the Americas?

    In a time of global uncertainty, a vision of “made in the Americas” prosperity provides a unifying agenda for the continent. If implemented, the US could reassert its historical leadership among a group of countries that share its fundamental values, as well as an interest in inclusive economic growth and rising living standards.

  4. Startup office Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    How Best to Promote Research and Development

    Clearly, there is something appealing about a start-up-based innovation strategy: it feels democratic, accessible, and so California. But it is definitely not the only way to boost research and development, or even the main way, and it is certainly not the way most major innovations in the US came about during the twentieth century.

  5. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.