全球失衡会重现吗?

北京-未来的历史书籍,由于写作地点的不同,会采用下述两种方式中的一种,来归咎当前世界金融和经济危机的责任。

  历史书籍两种归责方式中的一种,会将当前的金融和经济危机归咎于美国松懈的监管、没有原则的货币政策以及储蓄不足;另一种——像格林·斯潘和本·伯南克这样的前任美联储官员和现任美联储官员已经强调了这种方式,会将当前的金融和经济危机归咎于东亚和中东的高储蓄国家制造的巨大流动性。他们认为,所有这些流动性都去了某个地方,其合理的目的地就是拥有最复杂的金融市场的美国,并且在进入美国之后将美国的资产价格抬升到了无法持续的高度。

  请注意,上述两个阵营的人对这个观点达成了共识:即全球储蓄失衡——美国的低储蓄和中国及其他新兴市场的高储蓄——使美国人过上一种本身无法承受的生活,这对经济危机的发生起到了关键作用。这种全球储蓄失衡,促使金融家为了获得收益,不顾一切地将大量资金投入到越来越具有投机性的用途中去。如果说人们已经在某个问题上达成了共识的话,这个问题就是,如果不考虑全球失衡的作用,要想理解资产泡沫和经济危机是不可能的。

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