欧洲的罪人们会自救吗?

当德国官员们在1990年代大力推行《稳定与增长协定》作为放弃德国马克的前提条件时,他们没料到德国会成为第一个违反该协定的国家。该协定规定政府借债不得超过其GDP的3%,而德国的公共财政赤字在2002至2004年之间已达到并超过了GDP的3.7%的水平。

然而罪人还不止德国一家。法国在近三年里也违反了该协定的财政标准。葡萄牙在2001年,荷兰在2003年分别违规。希腊则通过篡改统计数据进行欺骗:虽然上报的赤字在协定的限度以内,但该国不得不承认其在2002至2004年间的实际平均赤字水平为4.3%且从未低于3.7%.

其他国家由于更幸运的宏观环境则在这方面较为成功。例如意大利不仅从政府创造性的财会制度中得益,同时也受益于欧元带来的欧洲利率合流。在1994-95至2004-05的十年间,意大利政府债券的长期利率从12%下降到4%。以意大利目前约106%的债务/ GDP比来说,更低的借贷成本使公共债务比率的下降幅度超过了8个百分点。

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