欧洲财政契约有用吗?

发自剑桥——在德国总理安吉拉·默克尔(Angela Merkel)敦促欧元区各国领导人达成协议的一年之后,2012年12月21日,“财政契约”得到了欧元区第12个国家芬兰的批准,由此从2013年起,欧元区“财政契约”开始生效。这份全称为《欧洲经济货币联盟稳定、协调与治理公约》的文件要求成员国制定法律限制政府结构性预算赤字不得高于GDP的0.5%(如果该国的债务对GDP比率“显著低于60%”,则为1%)。那么这一新措施能起到作用吗?

对“结构性赤字”的限制意味着成员国可以——也只可以——在收入与支出之间的差距是周期性的范围内最大程度地存在财政赤字,所谓周期性是指一国经济在暂时的负面冲击下在低于其潜能的水平上运行。换句话说,所设立目标是可以随周期性调整的。在2013年结束之前,每个成员国都必须将预算平衡内容添加到其法律体系中——最好是加入到本国宪法体系之中。

此举的目的是为了解决欧洲的长期财政问题,且该财政问题已在以下三个因素的作用下加速恶化:自欧元诞生后覆盖欧元区的《稳定与增长公约》已经无法有效实施赤字与债务限制;2010年在希腊和一些欧元区外围国家爆发的经济危机;以及随后的各种救助行动。毫无疑问,在年底之前各成员国都会跟进并颁布实施相关国家规定。而问题在于随后发生的事情:财政契约的失败风险其实和《稳定与增长公约》是同样大的。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/dfIHSrL/zh;
  1. China corruption Isaac Lawrence/Getty Images

    The Next Battle in China’s War on Corruption

    • Chinese President Xi Jinping knows well the threat that corruption poses to the authority of the Communist Party of China and the state it controls. 
    • But moving beyond Xi's anti-corruption purge to build robust and lasting anti-graft institutions will not be easy, owing to enduring opportunities for bureaucratic capture.
  2. Italy unemployed demonstration SalvatoreEsposito/Barcroftimages / Barcroft Media via Getty Images

    Putting Europe’s Long-Term Unemployed Back to Work

    Across the European Union, millions of people who are willing and able to work have been unemployed for a year or longer, at great cost to social cohesion and political stability. If the EU is serious about stopping the rise of populism, it will need to do more to ensure that labor markets are working for everyone.

  3. Latin America market Federico Parra/Getty Images

    A Belt and Road for the Americas?

    In a time of global uncertainty, a vision of “made in the Americas” prosperity provides a unifying agenda for the continent. If implemented, the US could reassert its historical leadership among a group of countries that share its fundamental values, as well as an interest in inclusive economic growth and rising living standards.

  4. Startup office Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    How Best to Promote Research and Development

    Clearly, there is something appealing about a start-up-based innovation strategy: it feels democratic, accessible, and so California. But it is definitely not the only way to boost research and development, or even the main way, and it is certainly not the way most major innovations in the US came about during the twentieth century.

  5. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.