¿Recuperarán las economías europeas su estabilidad?

ESTOCOLMO- ¿Cuál será la trayectoria del crecimiento de Europa luego que pase la crisis financiera? Para algunos europeos, todavía nerviosos de que sus economías y sistemas bancarios puedan colapsarse, es un poco como preguntar a un pasajero del Titanic lo qué va a hacer cuando llegue a Nueva York. Sin embargo, es una pregunta crucial que hay que plantear, sobre todo porque Europa ha estado enfrentando mucha presión externa de actores como los Estados Unidos y el FMI para que se concentre en políticas de estímulo keynesiano de corto plazo.

Cierto, las cosas en estos momentos están muy mal. Se estima que este año el ingreso de Europa caerá en un apabullante 4%. Pronto, el desempleo llegará a los dos dígitos en casi todo el continente, y en el caso de España y Letonia, se prevé que el desempleo pueda superar el 20%. El sistema bancario de Europa sigue estando débil, incluso cuando muchos gobiernos nacionales han hecho grandes esfuerzos por ocultar sus problemas bancarios.

Con todo, desagradable o no, en última instancia la recesión llegará a su fin. Sí, todavía existe el riesgo real de que choquemos con un iceberg; quizá empecemos a ver primero como los Estados bálticos caen en una situación de impago, luego el pánico se propagará inicialmente en Austria y en algunos  países nórdicos. Pero por el momento, un completo desmoronamiento parece definitivamente menos probable que una estabilización gradual seguida de una modesta recuperación con niveles de deuda disparados y una tasa persistente de desempleo.

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