Les économies européennes retrouveront-elles leur footing?

STOCKHOLM – A quoi ressemblera la courbe de croissance de l’Europe après la crise? Pour certains européens, encore inquiets de l’éventualité d’un effondrement de leur économie et de leur système bancaire, c’est un peu comme si l’on demandait à un passager du Titanic ce qu’il allait faire à son arrivée New York. C’est pourtant une question cruciale à poser, surtout à l’heure où l’Europe doit faire face à une pression constante des Etats Unis et du Fonds Monétaire International, entre autres, qui insistent sur la nécessité de mettre en œuvre rapidement des politiques de relance keynésienne.

Il est vrai que le paysage est un peu sombre en ce moment. Les prévisions semblent indiquer une chute de l’ordre de 4% du revenu de l’Europe pour cette année. Le chômage devrait atteindre un taux à deux chiffres dans la plupart des pays européens allant même jusqu’à frôler les 20% en Espagne et en Lettonie. Le système bancaire de l’Europe est mis à mal, même si de nombreux gouvernements ont tenté de masquer les déboires de leurs banques.

Mais aussi mauvaise que soit la situation actuelle, la récession finira bien par s’essouffler. Oui, il persiste un risque réel de percuter un iceberg. A commencer par un problème dans les pays baltiques, avec un vent de panique qui démarrerait en Autriche et certains des pays nordiques. Mais pour l’instant, un effondrement généralisé semble moins probable qu’un retour progressif à la stabilité, suivi par une timide amélioration accompagnée par des niveaux d’endettements colossaux et la persistance d’un taux de chômage élevé.

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