Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images

新兴市场是金融煤矿中的金丝雀吗?

布宜诺斯艾利斯—在阿根廷和土耳其不断发酵的汇率和债务危机是不会产生更大影响的局部事件吗?还是早期预警型号,表明高处不胜寒的全球债务市场存在深度脆弱性,随着美联储利率正常化政策的额继续,这些脆弱性正在暴露?

升息对于一些发达经济体也是稳定性的考验,特别是在意大利。意大利选民,尤其是较不发达的南方地区的选民,断然决然地选择了一个破坏性民粹主义政府。意大利经济规模是希腊的十倍,它如果违约将引爆欧元区。事实上,目前已经掌权的民粹主义执政联盟暗示它希望减记部分通过欧洲央行欠下的秘密欧元体系债务(不包括在意大利超过GDP的130%的官方公共债务中)。

好消息是全面全球债务危机爆发的可能性仍相对较低。即使最近欧洲表现欠佳,总体全球经济状况仍然坚挺,大部分地区增长仍然喜人。诚然,一些新兴市场企业累积的美元计价外债数量令人担忧,但许多外国央行拥有充足的美元资产,特别是亚洲。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

To read this article from our archive, please log in or register now. After entering your email, you'll have access to two free articles from our archive every month. For unlimited access to Project Syndicate, subscribe now.

required

By proceeding, you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy, which describes the personal data we collect and how we use it.

Log in

http://prosyn.org/pUZVv7h/zh;

Handpicked to read next

Cookies and Privacy

We use cookies to improve your experience on our website. To find out more, read our updated cookie policy and privacy policy.