Paul Lachine

¿Bajarán en 2012 los mercados en ascenso?

BERNA – Los mercados en ascenso han tenido unos resultados asombrosamente buenos en los siete últimos años. En muchos casos, han superado con gran diferencia a los países industrializados avanzados en crecimiento económico, proporción de la deuda respecto del PIB, política fiscal anticíclica y evaluaciones por parte de las agencias de calificación y los mercados financieros.

Sin embargo, al comenzar 2012 los inversores están preguntándose si los mercados en ascenso no irán a tener una corrección, desencadenada por una nueva ola de actuaciones para eliminar los riesgos. ¿Experimentará China una caída brusca? ¿Afectará a América Latina una bajada de los precios de los productos básicos? ¿Se extenderán los problemas de la Unión Europa en materia de deuda soberana a países vecinos, como, por ejemplo, Turquía?

De hecho, pocos son los que creen que se pueda mantener el rápido crecimiento económico y los elevados déficits comerciales que Turquía ha experimentado en los últimos años. Asimismo, unas altas tasas de aumento del PIB en el Brasil y la Argentina en el mismo período podrían invertirse pronto, en particular si bajan los precios de los  productos básicos, perspectiva nada remota, si la economía china empieza a flaquear o los tipos de interés reales mundiales aumentan en este año. A su vez, China podría tener una brusca caída, cuando su burbuja inmobiliaria estalle y los bancos del país se vean obligados a afrontar los préstamos fallidos.

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