china stock market china stock market_shiller102_Zhengyi Xie/ZumaPress

El espejismo de la singularidad financiera

NEW HAVEN – En su nuevo libro The Incredible Shrinking Alpha, Larry E. Swedroe y Andrew L. Berkin describen un entorno de inversión poblado por analistas que cada vez son más sofisticados y que se basan en datos de gran dimensión, en potentes computadoras y en la investigación académica. Con toda esto en la carrera competitiva, “los obstáculos para lograr un alfa [retornos por encima de un punto de referencia ajustado al riesgo – y por lo tanto, una medida de éxito en la selección de inversiones individuales] son cada vez más y más altos”.

Esa conclusión plantea una pregunta clave: ¿Llegará alfa, con el transcurso del tiempo, a cero en cada estrategia de inversión imaginable? De manera aún más fundamental la pregunta es: ¿Se está acercando el día cuando – gracias a tantas personas inteligentes y a computadoras aún más inteligentes – los mercados financieros se conviertan en realmente perfectos, y que simplemente nos sentemos plácidamente, nos relajemos, y asumamos que todos los activos se valoran de manera correcta?

Este imaginario estado de las cosas, que se podría llamar estado de singularidad financiera, de forma análoga al hipotético futuro de la singularidad tecnológica, que sería el momento cuando las computadoras reemplacen a la inteligencia humana. La singularidad financiera implica que sería mejor dejar todas las decisiones de inversión a un programa de computadora, ya que los expertos con sus algoritmos han descubierto qué es lo que impulsa a los resultados del mercado y ello ha sido reducido dentro de un sistema que funciona de forma integral y fluida.

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