china stock market china stock market_shiller102_Zhengyi Xie/ZumaPress

Il miraggio della singolarità finanziaria

NEW HAVEN – Nel loro nuovo libro The Incredible Shrinking Alpha, Larry E. Swedroe e Andrew L. Berkin descrivono un ambiente di investimenti popolato da analisti sempre più sofisticati che si affidano ai big data, a computer potenti e alla ricerca erudita. Con tutta questa competizione, “gli ostacoli per raggiungere l’alpha [rendimento su un benchmark rettificato del rischio – e quindi una misura di successo degli investimenti individuali] si fanno sempre più elevati”.

Tale conclusione solleva una questione chiave: alla fine l’alpha arriverà a zero per ogni immaginabile strategia di investimento? Fondamentalmente, si sta avvicinando il giorno in cui, grazie a così tante persone e computer intelligenti, i mercati finanziari diventeranno realmente perfetti, così da poterci sedere, rilassare e presupporre che verranno stabiliti prezzi corretti per tutti gli asset?

Tale situazione immaginaria potrebbe chiamarsi la singolarità finanziaria, analoga all’ipotetica singolarità tecnologica del futuro, quando i computer sostituiranno l’intelligenza umana. La singolarità finanziaria implica che si farebbe meglio a lasciare tutte le decisioni sugli investimenti a un programma informatico, poiché gli esperti con i loro algoritmi hanno immaginato quali saranno le conseguenze per il mercato e lo hanno ridotto a un sistema senza interruzioni.

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