china stock market china stock market_shiller102_Zhengyi Xie/ZumaPress

Přelud finanční singularity

NEW HAVEN – Larry E. Swedroe a Andrew L. Berkin ve své nové knize The Incredible Shrinking Alpha (Úžasná ubývající alfa) líčí investiční prostředí obydlené čím dál důvtipnějšími analytiky, kteří se opírají o velká data, výkonné počítače a akademický výzkum. V takové konkurenci „jsou překážky na cestě k dosažení alfy [výnosu nad rizikově korigovaný standard – tedy určité míry úspěchu při výběru konkrétních investic] vyšší a vyšší“.

Takový závěr přináší klíčovou otázku: klesne alfa u všech myslitelných investičních strategií až k nule? Ještě podstatnější otázka zní: blíží se den, kdy finanční trhy začnou být díky tolika bystrým lidem a chytřejším počítačům skutečně dokonalé a my budeme moci založit ruce, užívat si klidu a sázet na to, že všechna aktiva jsou správně oceněna?

Takový předpokládaný stav věcí bychom mohli označit za finanční singularitu, analogickou k hypotetické budoucí technologické singularitě, kdy počítače nahradí lidskou inteligenci. Finanční singularita by znamenala, že veškerá investiční rozhodnutí je lepší nechat na počítačovém programu, protože experti pracující s algoritmy zjistili, co vyvolává tržní výsledky, a svá zjištění zhustili do vybroušeného systému.

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