china stock market china stock market_shiller102_Zhengyi Xie/ZumaPress

金融奇点的幻象

发自纽黑文——在拉里·E·斯威德罗和安德烈·L·博尔金发表的新书,《不可思议的高回报萎缩》中,他们描述了一个充斥着日渐老练的高精尖分析员依赖大数据,超级电脑和学术研究成果工作的投资环境。在所有这些竞争态势之下,“实现高回报(也就是获取高于所承担风险基准的回报并以此制定一个挑选各单一投资方式的成功策略)的门槛将越来越高”。

这一结论产生了一个关键问题:对于所有人类可以设想出的投资策略来说,高回报是否最终会归零?更根本的是,是否有一天,在所有这些聪明人和更聪明的电脑的作用下,金融市场会否最终达到了完美的平衡,而我们只需要坐在那里什么都不干,并假设所有资产都被合理的定价?

这个想象中的状况或许可被称为金融奇点,也是一个与设想中的未来科技奇点相似的东西,也就是电脑会代替人类智能。而金融奇点则意味着,所有的投资决策最好留给电脑程序去决定,因为那些算法研究专家们已经找出了驱动市场表现的背后动力,并将其精简成为了一个天衣无缝的系统

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