¿Los bancos y los mercados financieros se recuperarán en 2009?

NUEVA YORK – Los mercados financieros globales en 2008 experimentaron su peor crisis desde la Gran Depresión de los años 1930. Instituciones financieras de renombre terminaron en la ruina; otras fueron compradas a precio de bagatela o sobrevivieron sólo después de importantes rescates. Los mercados accionarios globales cayeron en más del 50%; los diferenciales de las tasas de interés subieron vertiginosamente; apareció una severa crisis de liquidez y de crédito; y muchas economías de mercados emergentes se acercaron a los tumbos al Fondo Monetario Internacional en busca de ayuda.

¿Qué nos depara el destino, entonces, en 2009? ¿Lo peor ya quedó atrás o está por venir? Para responder estos interrogantes, debemos entender que un círculo vicioso de contracción económica y agravamiento de las condiciones financieras está en camino.

Estados Unidos con certeza experimentará su peor recesión en décadas, una contracción profunda y prolongada que durará unos 24 meses hasta fines de 2009. Es más, toda la economía global se contraerá. Habrá recesión en la zona del euro, el Reino Unido, Europa continental, Canadá, Japón y otras economías avanzadas. También existe el riesgo de un aterrizaje duro para las economías de mercados emergentes, ya que las vinculaciones comerciales, financieras y monetarias les transmiten sacudones ampnbsp;reales y financieros.

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