Оправятся ли банки и финансовые рынки в 2009 году?

НЬЮ-ЙОРК. Мировые финансовые рынки пережили свой наихудший финансовый кризис со времен Великой депрессии 1930-х годов. Крупные финансовые учреждения обанкротились, другие были скуплены за бесценок или выжили только после значительной поддержки. Акции на мировых биржах упали более чем на 50% , процентные ставки резко возросли; понизилась ликвидность, и выдача кредитов стала ограничиваться; многие экономики развивающихся стран запросили помощи у Международного валютного фонда.

Так чего же ожидать в 2009 году? Прошли ли мы самый трудный этап или нам еще предстоит это сделать? Чтобы ответить на эти вопросы, мы должны понять, что экономические ограничения и ухудшение финансовых условий происходят полным ходом.

Соединенные Штаты определенно будут проходить через этап самого крупного кризиса за десятилетия, глубокое и затяжное сокращение, которое будет длиться около 24 месяцев вплоть до конца 2009 года. Более того, будет сокращаться вся мировая экономика. Рецессия будет происходить в еврозоне, Соединенном Королевстве, континентальной Европе, Канаде, Японии и других промышленно-развитых странах. Существует также опасность тяжелого приземления для экономик развивающихся стран, так как торговые, финансовые и валютные связи передают им реальные и финансовые потрясения.

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