Werden sich Banken und Finanzmärkte 2009 erholen?

NEW YORK: Die weltweiten Finanzmärkte erlebten 2008 ihre schwerste Krise seit der Großen Depression der 1930er Jahre. Wichtige Finanzinstitute gingen bankrott; andere wurden zu Schleuderpreisen aufgekauft oder überlebten nur nach großen Rettungsaktionen. Die weltweiten Aktienmärkte fielen um mehr als 50%. Die Zinsspannen vergrößerten sich sprunghaft, es kam zu einer schweren Liquiditäts- und Kreditverknappung, und viele ins Trudeln geratene Schwellenmärkte mussten den Internationalen Währungsfonds um Hilfe bitten.

Was also erwartet uns 2009? Liegt das Schlimmste hinter oder noch vor uns? Um diese Fragen zu beantworten, müssen wir begreifen, dass ein Teufelskreis aus wirtschaftlichem Abschwung und einer sich verschlechternden Finanzlage im Gange ist.

Die Vereinigten Staaten werden mit Sicherheit die schwerste Rezession in Jahrzehnten erleben – einen tiefen, lang andauernden Abschwung, der etwa 24 Monate bis über das Jahresende 2009 hinaus anhalten wird. Mehr noch, die gesamte Weltwirtschaft wird schrumpfen. In der Eurozone, Großbritannien, Kontinentaleuropa, Kanada, Japan und den übrigen hoch entwickelten Volkswirtschaften wird es eine Rezession geben. Und auch für Schwellenmärkte besteht das Risiko einer harten Landung, da über Handels-, Finanz- und Währungsverbindungen real- und finanzwirtschaftliche Schocks an sie weitergegeben werden.

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