Les banques et les marchés financiers se rétabliront-ils en 2009 ?

NEW YORK – En 2008, les marchés financiers mondiaux ont connu la crise la plus grave depuis la Grande Dépression des annéesampnbsp;1930. Des institutions financières de premier plan ont fait failliteampnbsp;; certaines ont été reprises à bas prix et d’autres n’ont survécu que grâce à un renflouage coûteux. Les bourses mondiales ont perdu plus de 50 pour cent de leur valeurampnbsp;; lesampnbsp;différentiels des taux d’intérêts ont atteint des sommetsampnbsp;; on a assisté à un gel des liquidités et du créditampnbsp;; et plusieurs économies émergentes ont imploré l’aide du Fonds monétaire international.

À quoi faut-il s’attendre pour 2009ampnbsp;? Le pire est-il derrière ou devant nousampnbsp;? Pour répondre à ces questions, nous devons comprendre que nous sommes dans un cercle vicieux de contraction économique et de conditions financières qui vont en s’aggravant.

Il ne fait aucun doute que les États-Unis subiront leur pire récession depuis des décennies, une contraction profonde et prolongée de 24 mois environ, jusqu’à la fin 2009. Cette situation n’épargnera pas le reste du monde. La zone euro sera aussi en récession, soit l’Europe continentale et la Grande-Bretagne, auxquels il faut ajouter le Canada et le Japon et les autres économies avancées. On peut aussi s’attendre à un atterrissage brutal des économies émergentes, compte tenu des liens commerciaux, financiers et monétaires qui leur transmettent des chocs réels et financiers.

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