Приведет ли обвал фондового рынка США к депрессии?

В связи с падением курса акций миллиарды людей во всем мире, не вкладывающих деньги в американский фондовый рынок, волнует один вопрос: «Вызовет ли изменение положения дел на фондовом рынке США крах американской экономики, способный распространиться на весь мир?» И это чрезвычайно важный вопрос, поскольку многие финансовые «пузыри» действительно становились причиной спада производительности и роста безработицы.

Дать точный ответ на этот вопрос невозможно. По моим предположениям, однако, Соединенные Штаты отделаются лишь небольшим спадом. Такой оптимизм может показаться неуместным в то время, когда курс акций падает практически каждый день, а опыт других стран показывает, что обвал фондового рынка приводит к экономическому краху.

Неуместным он может показаться еще и ввиду слабости в экономическом отношении нынешнего американского руководства. Президент Буш опрометчиво поставил понижение налогов для богатых людей выше всех экономических соображений. Он - протекционист, а не сторонник свободной торговли. Сегодня как президента Буша, так и вице-президента Чейни проверяют на предмет возможных корпоративных нарушений в период их занятия коммерческой деятельностью.

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