美国的痛苦能否令中国受益?

纽约——为了通过对美国金融体系的救助方案,布什政府官员让20世纪30年代大萧条的幽灵重新回到了人们的记忆当中。但绝大多数亚洲人的脑海里仍然对经济大决战记忆犹新。

10年前的亚洲金融危机打垮了银行、企业和政府。1997年泰铢的崩溃点燃了危机的导火线。灾难迅速在东亚蔓延,系列货币贬值引发的动荡最远波及到俄罗斯和巴西。韩国和香港的长期“经济奇迹”嘎然而止,印尼和泰国的快速经济增长也同样难逃厄运。

人们从那次危机中吸取的核心教训就是保持大规模外汇储备,这实际上已经成为东亚政府一个坚定的信念。20世纪90年代,虽然出口和外国投资繁荣兴旺,但快速增长的亚洲经济体却只有小规模的外汇储备。等到1997年混乱开始,政府缺乏外汇储备让它们无力解救陷入困境的银行,只能被迫向国际机构求援。

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