Cuando las palomas de la inflación lloran

PITTSBURGH – The Wall Street Journal recientemente publicó un artículo en la portada donde decía que las "palomas" de la política monetaria, que habían pronosticado una inflación baja en Estados Unidos, pudieron más que los "halcones", para quienes las compras mensuales por parte de la Fed de títulos a largo plazo, o el llamado alivio cuantitativo (QE por su sigla en inglés), generarían un alza más rápida de los precios. El informe era correcto pero engañoso, ya que no mencionaba por qué hoy hay tan poca inflación en Estados Unidos. ¿Las palomas estaban en lo cierto o simplemente tuvieron suerte?

La Junta de la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos ha bombeado billones de dólares de reservas, pero nunca tantas reservas produjeron tan poco crecimiento monetario. Ni los halcones ni las palomas (ni nadie) esperaban eso.

Los monetaristas insisten en que las economías experimentan inflación cuando el crecimiento de la masa monetaria excede persistentemente el crecimiento de la producción. Eso todavía no ha sucedido, de manera que la inflación aún no se produjo.

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