Wenn die Inflationstauben weinen

PITTSBURGH – Das Wall Street Journal brachte kürzlich auf der Titelseite einen Artikel über die „Tauben“ der Geldpolitik, die eine niedrige Inflation in den Vereinigten Staaten vorhergesagt und die „Falken“ übertrumpft hatten, die ihrerseits argumentiert hatten, dass die allmonatlichen Käufe langfristiger Wertpapiere seitens der Notenbank, also die quantitative Lockerung (QE), einen schnelleren Preiszuwachs bewirken würden. Der Bericht war korrekt, aber irreführend, denn er erwähnte nicht, warum die Inflation in den USA zurzeit so niedrig ist. Hatten die Tauben recht oder nur Glück?

Der Rat der US-Notenbank hat Billionen Dollar an Reserven herausgepumpt, aber niemals haben so viele Währungsreserven eine derart geringe Geldmengenzunahme erzeugt. Weder die Falken noch die Tauben (oder irgendjemand sonst) haben das erwartet.

Monetaristen bestehen darauf, dass Inflation in Volkswirtschaften entsteht, wenn das Geldmengenwachstum ständig höher ist als das Produktionswachstum. Das ist bisher noch nicht passiert, also wurde die Inflation aufgeschoben.

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