当通胀鸽派得势

匹兹堡—《华尔街日报》最近刊登了一篇头版文章报道,说预测美国通胀将保持低位的货币政策“鸽派”已经压倒了认为美联储每月购买长期证券的计划,即所谓的量化宽松(QE)将加速物价上涨的“鹰派”。报道说的没错,但有误导之嫌,因为它没有提及为何现今美国通胀如此之低。是鸽派对了,还是仅仅因为幸运?

美联储董事会抛出了数万亿美元的准备金,但如此之多的准备金只造成如此至少的货币增长,这是从未有过的事情。鹰派和鸽派(和任何其他人)都没有料到会如此。

货币主义者坚持认为,当货币供给持续高于产出增长时,经济会经历通胀。但这并没有发生,因此通胀一直起不来。

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