عندما يبكي حمائم التضخم

بيتسبرج ــ نشرت صحيفة وال ستريت جورنال مؤخراً مقالاً على الصفحة الأولى ذكر أن "حمائم" السياسة النقدية الذين توقعوا انخفاض معدل التضخم في الولايات المتحدة، تغلبوا على "الصقور" الذين زعموا أن مشتريات بنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الشهرية من الأوراق المالية الطويلة الأجل (أو ما يسمى بالتيسير الكمي) من شأنها أن تطلق العنان لنمو الأسعار بشكل أسرع. وكان التقرير صحيحاً ولكنه مضلل، لأنه تغافل عن ذكر الأسباب وراء انخفاض معدل التضخم في الولايات المتحدة إلى حد كبير اليوم. ولكن تُرى هل كان الحمائم على صواب أم أن الحظ حالفهم فحسب؟

لقد ضخ مجلس الاحتياطي الفيدرالي تريليونات من الدولارات من الاحتياطيات، ولكن لم يسبق له من قبل قط أن استخدم كل هذا القدر من الاحتياطيات لإنتاج نمو نقدي ضئيل إلى هذا الحد. ولم يتوقع ذلك لا الصقور ولا الحمائم (ولا أي شخص آخر).

ويصر أنصار النظرية النقدية على أن الاقتصادات تعاني من التضخم عندما يتجاوز نمو المعروض النقدي نمو الناتج بشكل مستمر. ولم يحدث هذا بعد، لذا فقد تم تأجيل التضخم.

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