Pourquoi l'armée turque restera chez elle

Juste au moment où les conflits politiques de l'année passée commençaient à se dissiper en Turquie, une nouvelle attaque meurtrière lancée par des séparatistes kurdes contre des soldats turcs a poussé le gouvernement à proférer des menaces d'attaques militaires au nord de l'Irak. Ces éventuelles attaques comportent des risques pour la Turquie, pour l'Irak et pour les États-Unis. Pourtant, il y a des raisons de douter que la situation soit aussi dangereuse que les derniers gros titres des journaux le laissent entendre.

La Turquie accuse les Kurdes irakiens d'abriter entre 3000 et 3500 de ses activistes kurdes les plus virulents – les guérillas séparatistes du PKK sont tenues pour responsables de la mort de 80 soldats turcs cette année. Les événements ont atteint un point critique le 7 octobre lorsque des combattants kurdes ont tué 13 soldats turcs près de la frontière de la Turquie avec l’Irak.

Le gouvernement du Premier Ministre Recep Tayyip Erdogan a réagi face aux demandes de la population turque de prendre des mesures. Le 17 octobre, malgré les appels à la patience et à la modération lancés par l’Irak et les Etats-Unis, les parlementaires turcs ont autorisé Erdogan, à 507 voix contre 19, à ordonner des assauts militaires transfrontaliers vers l’Irak à tout moment l’année prochaine.

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