Janet Yellen Yin Bogu/ZumaPress

Razones por las que la Reserva Federal debe aplazar la subida

por Anders Borg

JACKSON HOLE (WYOMING) – Cuando los bancos centrales de todo el mundo se reúnan esta semana en Jackson Hole para la celebración anual del Simposio sobre Política Económica de la Reserva Federal, un tema de debate fundamental será la actual agitación de los mercados de valores mundiales. Hay muchas razones para ello, pero la espera de la próxima subida de los tipos de interés por parte de la Reserva Federal –tal vez tan pronto como a comienzos de septiembre– es claramente una de ellas.

Los argumentos a favor de una subida de los tipos de interés son válidos. La economía de los Estados Unidos está cobrando impulso. El Fondo Monetario Internacional pronostica un crecimiento anual del tres por cierto en 2015 y 2016, acompañado de unas tasas de inflación de 0,1 por ciento y 1.5 por ciento, respectivamente. Cuando una economía está normalizándose, es lógico que se reduzcan las medidas expansionistas, como las introducidas después de la crisis de 2008. Como la Reserva Federal ha anunciado claramente que irá adoptando gradualmente políticas menos expansionistas, su crédito podría verse perjudicado, si no lo hace.

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