Janet Yellen Yin Bogu/ZumaPress

为何美联储应该暂停升息

杰克森霍尔,怀俄明州—本周,全球央行行长将齐聚杰克森霍尔(Jackson Hole),出席一年一度的美联储经济政策讨论会。讨论会的一个重要议题是当前股市动荡。动荡的原因有很多,但预期美联储将开始升息——也许从9月份就会开始——显然是其中之一。

支持升息的理由很充分。美国经济正在重获动力。国际货币基金组织(IMF)预测2015和2016年增长率为3%,对应通胀率分别为0.1%和1.5%。当经济开始正常化时,减少扩张政策(比如2008年危机后实施的那些)再合理不过了。美联储早就明确表示它将逐渐减少扩张性政策,因此,如果它不那么做,信誉就会收到影响。

但有很好的理由认为美联储应该暂停升息,并在未来几个季度保持货币政策扩张。首先,美国复苏仍然疲软。从历史看,复苏期间3%的增长绝算不上漂亮。在其他几次最近的复苏中,随着产能利用率的提高助推生产率和投资,增长率常常达到4%甚至5%。

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