中国的 美国援助?

苏黎世—到目前为止,21世纪的经济由中国向美国的资本流决定着——这一模式压低了全球利率,帮助发达世界杠杆泡沫再次膨胀,并通过在货币市场的影响助长了中国的迅速崛起。但这不是普通的资本流。它不是由直接投资或组合投资驱动的,而主要来自中国人民银行,后者囤积了3.5万亿美元外汇储备,其中大部分是美国国债。

一个机构对全球宏观经济趋势施加了如此之大的影响,这引起了大规模的不安,末日预言家纷纷表示对美国债务可持续性的怀疑将迫使美国甩卖其持有的美国债务。这将推高美国利率,并最终触发美元的崩溃。

这一观点指出,甩卖美国国债并不符合中国的利益,因为这会推高人民币对美元汇率,降低中国储备的本币价值,破坏出口部门的竞争力。事实上,去年美国国防部的一百分报告分析了中国所持美国债务对国家安全的影响,结论是“试图将美国国债作为强制工具使用效果有限,对中国的危害比对[美国]更大。”

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