El opiáceo de los mercados de Mario Draghi

CHICAGO – Desde el punto de vista de la estabilidad europea, las elecciones italianas no podrían haber arrojado un resultado peor. El parlamento de Italia está dividido entre tres fuerzas políticas mutuamente incompatibles y ninguna de ellas es lo suficientemente fuerte como para gobernar por sí sola. Peor aún, una de estas fuerzas, que ganó el 25% de los votos, es un partido populista anti-euro, mientras que otra, un grupo euroescéptico liderado por el ex primer ministro Silvio Berlusconi, recibió un respaldo cercano al 30%, lo que les dio a los partidos anti-euro una clara mayoría.

A pesar de estos resultados alarmantes, el diferencial de tasas de interés para los bonos del gobierno italiano en relación a los bunds alemanes ha aumentado apenas 40 puntos básicos desde la elección. En julio de 2012, cuando un gobierno pro-europeo inclinado hacia la austeridad conducía el país, con el muy respetado economista Mario Monti a cargo, el diferencial alcanzó 536 puntos básicos. Hoy, sin gobierno y con pocas posibilidades de que se forme uno decente en lo inmediato, el diferencial está en 314 puntos. ¿Será que los mercados están alcistas respecto de Italia o es que han perdido su capacidad para evaluar el riesgo?

Una encuesta reciente de inversores internacionales realizada por Morgan Stanley sugiere que no están alcistas. El 46% de los participantes dijo que el resultado más probable para Italia es una administración interina y nuevas elecciones. Y consideran que este resultado es el peor escenario, ya que implica una postergación en la toma de cualquier medida económica futura, una profunda incertidumbre en materia de políticas y el riesgo de un resultado electoral incluso menos favorable.

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