市场的德拉吉鸦片

芝加哥—站在欧洲稳定的立场看,意大利选举结果可谓坏到了极点。意大利议会分裂为三个互不相容的政治阵营,没有一个强大到足以单独执政。更糟糕的是,其中一个获得了25%选票的阵营是反欧元民粹主义政党,另外一个支持率近30%的阵营是前总理贝卢斯科尼领导的欧元怀疑派,这使得反欧元政党占据明显多数。

尽管结果令人担忧,但选举以来意大利政府债券相对德国国债的利差只上升了40个基点。2012年6月,执政意大利的是紧缩派政府,政府首脑是德高望重的经济学家蒙蒂,此时的利差为536个基点。如今,陷入无政府状态、且没有任何迹象表明会在不久的将来形成得体政府的意大利,利差只有314个基点。那么,是市场看好意大利,还是市场失去了评估风险的能力?

摩根士丹利进行的最新国际投资者调查表明,投资者并不看好意大利。46%受访者声称意大利最有可能的结果是过渡政府+新选举。他们认为这一结果堪称最坏情形,意味着进一步经济措施将被推迟、政策面临极大的不稳定性,并有可能形成更加不利的选举结果。

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