Chris Van Es

Un euro più debole per un'Europa indebolita

VIENNA – Cosa si può fare per aiutare le "economie in crisi" dell'Europa meridionale a ridurre il proprio disavanzo esterno? Spesso la questione viene posta in termini di conflitto tra i PIIGS (Portogallo, Italia, Irlanda, Grecia e Spagna) gravati dal disavanzo, e i paesi dell'eurozona con eccedenze nelle partite correnti, primo fra tutti la Germania. Negli ultimi anni, però, si è profilato un nuovo e ancor più grave squilibrio – il disavanzo commerciale e nei servizi dei PIIGS con la Cina – che suggerisce quale possibile rimedio al malessere economico del Sud dell'Europa un renminbi più forte.

Fino al 2004, il maggior disavanzo commerciale e nei servizi dei PIIGS era con gli altri paesi dell'eurozona. Nel 2005, però, il loro disavanzo complessivo con il resto del mondo, pari a 37,2 miliardi di euro (48,6 miliardi dollari), ha superato di oltre 4 miliardi di euro quello con altri paesi dell’area euro. Nel 2008, poi, cioè prima che la crisi finanziaria globale raggiungesse il suo apice, il disavanzo globale dei PIIGS ha sfiorato il livello record di 116,5 miliardi di euro, di cui 34,8 miliardi con la Cina, superando per la prima volta, di oltre 2 miliardi di euro, il disavanzo con la Germania (vedi tabella).

Essenzialmente, anche se il disavanzo complessivo dei PIIGS con la Germania, l'eurozona e il mondo si è ridotto notevolmente negli ultimi quattro anni, quello con la Cina è rimasto enorme, pari rispettivamente a 33 miliardi di euro nel 2010 e a 29 miliardi nel 2011.

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